Monday, December 22, 2014

With Cuba decision, Obama hands Hillary Clinton a gift

With Cuba decision, Obama hands Hillary Clinton a gift
BY STEVE HOLLAND
WASHINGTON Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:15pm EST

(Reuters) - Potential 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary
Clinton knows a political gift when she sees one.

She was quick to embrace the step this week when President Barack Obama,
a fellow Democrat no longer having to face an electorate, relaxed U.S.
policy toward Cuba.

While assailed by Republicans opposed to restoring ties with the
communist-led island, the action has the power to solidify support for
Democrats among increasingly influential Latino voters and appeal to
voters in farm states like Iowa eager to do business in Havana.

Obama's unilateral move has gently shaken up the 2016 race to succeed
him, exposing divisions among Republicans and possibly helping Democrats
already buoyed by his decision to liberalize immigration policy.

Potential contenders Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio adhered to the traditional
Republican hard line on Cuba and sharply criticized Obama. But Kentucky
Senator Rand Paul, who has a libertarian streak, backed the new policy.

A likely White House candidate, Paul told a West Virginia radio station
that the 50-year-old embargo with Cuba "just hasn't worked."

Clinton, Obama's former secretary of state, also had asserted the
previous policy was not working. In her memoir, "Hard Choices," she
wrote that she urged Obama to shift. She welcomed the change in a
statement on Wednesday.

Democrats argue that Clinton's embrace of Obama on Cuba could help her
with Latino voters, especially younger ones in the key state of Florida,
who are less inclined than their elders to be virulently opposed to the
Cuban government.

Of America's 1.5-million-strong Cuban-American population, about 80
percent live in Florida.

"I think it'll help her with the younger folks," Democratic strategist
Bud Jackson said of Clinton.

Latinos already like what they see in Clinton.

A Telemundo/NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found on Thursday that 61
percent of Latinos see themselves supporting Clinton in 2016, 11 points
more than the general population.

MORE OF A PLUS

The Cuba shift could also prove popular among those dependent on
America's agricultural businesses, major hotels and even sports fans who
enjoy watching the best Cuban players make it to Major League Baseball.

"The political calculation has to be that this is more of a plus for a
candidate for president than a minus," said David Yepsen, director of
the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of more than 31,000 adults between July and October
showed Americans largely open to forging diplomatic relations with Cuba.
About one-fifth opposed such a move, while 43 percent backed it and
around 37 percent were unsure.

But there are potential pitfalls for Clinton. She will need to stake out
some positions of her own or risk criticism that she simply represents
the third term of a president who is saddled with a 40 percent approval
rating.

In their 2008 battle for the Democratic presidential nomination that
Obama won, Clinton accused him of being "naive" for offering to meet
leaders of such renegade nations as Cuba without conditions.

Since flirting with a presidential race, Clinton for the most part has
chosen not to separate herself from Obama other than to question his
decision not to arm Syrian rebels, as her memoir reveals.

Lanhee Chen, a Hoover Institution scholar who advised Republican Mitt
Romney's 2012 presidential bid, said if Clinton is "trying to draw some
distance from the president's foreign policy in some ways, it was not
useful to have something where she's perfectly aligned with him."

There are also risks for Jeb Bush, a former Florida governor, and Rubio,
a Florida senator. In their criticisms of Obama's policy, the two
Republicans are aligning themselves with their party's conservative base
but their views could appear outdated to moderate voters.

"I think it's kind of a blind cul-de-sac for people like Rubio and Bush
to get pushed into," said Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, who was
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's campaign manager in 2004.
"It reflects a Florida that doesn't exist anymore."

(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle; Editing by Caren Bohan and
Howard Goller)

Source: With Cuba decision, Obama hands Hillary Clinton a gift | Reuters
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/19/us-cuba-usa-idUSKBN0JX05820141219

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